Let’s start with the elephant sitting in the middle of the room wearing a referee’s whistle: there may not be a season. The owners locked the players out on the first of July, the two sides are nowhere close, and as I type this nobody can tell you whether the NBA tips off in November, in January, or sometime around the heat death of the universe. So consider everything below a preview written in pencil. If they play, here’s what the Pistons are. If they don’t, well, at least Detroit fans got a summer off from watching this.
And here’s the thing about that — a summer off might’ve been the best thing to happen to this franchise in two years.
Because the 2010-11 Pistons were not a basketball team so much as a hostage situation. Thirty wins, fifty-two losses, a locker room that had quit on coach John Kuester somewhere around the All-Star break, and an actual, honest-to-goodness player revolt in February when a chunk of the roster skipped a shootaround in Philadelphia. You don’t see that. Players tank effort all the time, quietly, the way grown men do. You almost never see them do it with the door wide open. That was a team telling the world it was done, and the world believed them.
So the reset was coming, and it came fast.
The cleanup crew arrives
Tom Gores bought the place. The Platinum Equity man, Flint-raised, got the keys from the Davidson family this spring and didn’t waste much time. Kuester was gone by June — 57 wins in two seasons, no playoffs either year, and a roster that had stopped listening to him long before. In his place, on August 3rd, Gores and Joe Dumars handed the whistle to Lawrence Frank.
I like the Frank hire more than the standard-issue “new voice” stuff. This is a coach who cut his teeth defensively, who spent last year on Doc Rivers’ staff in Boston watching how a real professional operation guards people and holds them accountable. He inherits a team that finished in the league’s basement defensively and didn’t seem to mind. Frank will mind. He’ll have them in stances, he’ll have them communicating, and — this is the part that actually matters in Detroit right now — he’ll have them playing hard, because the alternative is sitting next to him.
What he won’t have is enough talent. That’s not on him. That’s the inheritance.
The two reasons to watch
Let me give you the good news first, because there is some, and his name is Greg Monroe.
The kid was the seventh pick a year ago and spent the first half of his rookie season looking like a project. Then the light came on. He finished averaging a shade under ten points and eight boards, but the back-half numbers were a different animal entirely — soft hands, real passing instincts for a big man, a feel around the rim you can’t coach into people. Monroe is twenty-one years old and he is, full stop, the most important player on this roster and the foundation of whatever Detroit eventually becomes. Build around him and you’ve got a chance. Everything else is negotiable.
The other reason is the rookie. Detroit grabbed Brandon Knight eighth overall out of Kentucky in June — a lead guard with a scorer’s instincts, a quick first step, and the kind of poise that suggests he’ll be running this team sooner rather than later. He won’t be good right away. Rookie point guards almost never are; the position is too hard, the reads are too fast, and the veterans will eat him alive for a few months. But you’re not drafting for February of 2012. You’re drafting for 2014, and Knight is a 2014 piece.
The logjam nobody can untangle
Now the bad news, and there’s more of it.
This roster has too many guards, and most of them are signed to the wrong contracts. Rodney Stuckey is a restricted free agent the Pistons want to keep but can’t pay until the lockout thaws. Ben Gordon and Richard Hamilton are both still here, both making serious money, and both expecting minutes that can’t all exist on the same team — you can’t play three undersized two-guards at once, and you can’t play Knight, Stuckey, Gordon, and Hamilton without somebody being miserable. Somebody is going to be miserable. My money’s on Hamilton, a proud veteran from the championship days who increasingly looks like a man whose Pistons story is over but hasn’t been told yet. Don’t be shocked if he’s wearing another jersey before this is through.
And then there’s the Charlie Villanueva–Ben Gordon double feature, the two big-ticket free agents Dumars signed back in 2009 who’ve delivered almost nothing for the money. Those deals are the anchor around this franchise’s ankles — the reason Detroit can’t pivot quickly, can’t clear the room to chase the next thing. You don’t rebuild fast when half your cap is spoken for by guys you’d waive if you could.
Up front, behind Monroe, it’s thin and it’s old. Ben Wallace is back for what has to be a farewell lap at thirty-seven, all heart and not many minutes left in the legs. Jonas Jerebko returns from the torn Achilles that wiped out his second season, and he’s a useful, energetic piece — but “useful and energetic” doesn’t move a frontcourt. There’s no rim protector here, no second big you trust. Teams are going to score on Detroit in the paint all year.
The call
Tayshaun Prince is expected back once the work stoppage clears — a steadying veteran hand, the last real link to the 2004 group — and he’ll help hold the floor while the kids find themselves. But a steadying hand doesn’t change the ceiling, and the ceiling here is low.
Look at the East. The Heat, the Bulls, the Celtics, the Magic, the Hawks, a Knicks team that just added Carmelo, a Sixers team on the rise, the Pacers getting frisky. That’s eight legitimate playoff outfits before you even get to Detroit, and the Pistons aren’t passing any of them. Not this year. Not with this roster.
So here’s where I land: if they play a full season, I’ve got the Pistons at about 35 wins, and on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. Frank gets them defending and competing, Monroe takes a real leap, Knight flashes the future on some nights and looks every bit a rookie on others — and it all adds up to a team that’s more watchable than last year’s mutiny but still a long way from the postseason.
And honestly? That’s fine. That’s the point. This isn’t a win-now roster and pretending otherwise is how you end up with a Ben Gordon contract. The job in 2011-12 is to find out what Monroe and Knight are, to play hard for a coach worth playing hard for, and to move the dead weight when the chance comes. Thirty-five wins and a lottery trip isn’t a disappointment for this team. It’s the first honest step they’ve taken in two years. Whenever they’re allowed to take it.
